Saturday, September 10, 2016

Hand Review: Check or Bet the River With Top Two and an Aggressive Image?NO Deposit bonus $43
HomeStrategyTexas Hold'em Poker Hand Review: Check or Bet the River With Top Two and an Aggressive Image?
  • After establishing an aggressive image, Mo Nuwwarah goes for value -- but should he have slowed down?

  • Mo Nuwwarah analyzes a Mid-States Poker Tour hand involving an enchanting postflop decision.

Covering live poker tournaments for a living affords me the chance to peer countless thousands of hands played out, a lot of which provide interesting and potentially valuable insights into how players — both amateurs and professionals — play the sport. On this ongoing series, I'll highlight hands I've seen on the tournaments I've covered and notice if we will be able to glean anything useful from them.

The Scene

The week after the RunGood Poker Series event in my backyard, it was time for me to hit the street again, but this time with the plan of playing a tournament in place of covering it. I made it to Sioux Falls, South Dakota for the $1,100 Mid-States Poker Tour Grand Falls event.

After bricking Day 1a of the event, I USED TO BE back in action on Day 1b when this hand occurred with blinds of 500/1,000 with a 100 ante.

I had an excessively loose and aggressive image and not one of the players at my table were inclined to present me much credit at this point. But I had managed to accumulate to a couple of 50,000 stack and had most of my table covered, including Brett Reichard, who had about 40,000 to start out this hand.

The Action

From under the gun, I opened to 2,300 holding  a-  j- . Action folded to Reichard, who called at the button, and both blinds came along as well.

The flop came  a-Diamonds  j-Clubs  3-Diamonds . When folded to I bet 3,800, Reichard called, and the opposite two players folded. The turn was a  9- . I checked, and Reichard bet 4,500. I raised to 12,500, and Reichard thought a little while and called.

The river then brought a  10- , and that i pushed all in. Reichard immediately folded and that i took the pot with no showdown.

Concept and Analysis

The thing that made me wonder about this hand after I reflected on it later was my decision to move all in at the river.

It was a choice I made pretty quickly within the moment. After all, doing so was the logical conclusion to the road I took.

Hand Review: Check or Bet the River With Top Two and an Aggressive Image? 101Brett Reichard

I bet the flop and checked the turn with a monster, knowing my opponent wasn't more likely to give me any credit and would value bet worse hands and possibly semi-bluff draws. I sprang the trap and built up a large pot with my big hand at a time when my opponent was more likely to pay me off as a result of my image.

Then, at the river, I still had essentially the nuts and not more than a pot-sized bet left. Easy jam, I figured.

At the time, my immediate thought was, "Okay, hopefully he has ace-ten, ace-nine, or even even ace-queen." But, that's roughly a small subset of hands. I particularly hoped to be against ace-ten because it most fit his action. I figured he would probably reraise me preflop with ace-king and even perhaps ace-queen, but with lesser aces he would definitely be calling.

But after I check-raised the turn and he just called, my initial thought was his perhaps hand was a flush draw. He was getting an excellent price to call, having to install 8,000 more right into a pot of well over 30,000, and that i figured he would have called slightly more quickly with an ace to boot. Slow playing hands that beat me wouldn't make much sense due to the strength I had shown, so an ace or a flush draw gave the look to be about all he could have.

Given that, there's not that much with which he's really calling my shove. However, if my opponent does have a flush draw here, it's possible he might bet if I check. A shove will surely have a fair amount of fold equity, as I'd need to think hard about even a hand like ace-queen or ace-king because it could be believable for him to have two pair. So I WOULD get more value seeking to induce a bluff at the river after making my big value play at the turn.

In the moment, this gave the impression of an automated shove. But on reflection checking to urge a bluff looks as if a viable play in addition. What do you think?


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