Covering live poker tournaments for a living affords me the chance to look countless thousands of hands played out, lots of which provide interesting and potentially valuable insights into how players — both amateurs and professionals — play the sport. On this ongoing series, I'll highlight hands I've seen on the tournaments I've covered and spot if we will be able to glean anything useful from them.
The Scene
Last week, we checked out a hand from the $1,100 Mid-States Poker Tour Grand Falls Main Event. Firing two bullets into the tournament and using a slightly aggressive approach allowed me to play numerous noteworthy hands despite my complete failure to present myself an afternoon 2 sweat, and we'll take a look at another one today.
This one comes from early on Day 1b once I had almost doubled my 20,000-chip starting stack by flopping trips in a large spot. Looking around my table, Tom Sundling (pictured above, left) have been opening pretty frequently for a few orbits. Meanwhile Matt Sztamburski (right) were playing it snug so far, but my read from past experience with him was that he was in a position to making moves, particularly preflop.
The Action
With blinds and antes at 150/300/25, Sundling opened with a raise to 850 from the hijack. Seated within the cutoff, Sztamburski made it 2,275 to move. I then four-bet to 5,600 at the button with 
.
The blinds got out, then Sundling went all in for 14,000 total. Sztamburski thought awhile before folding his hand. I then thought of a minute and called.
Sundling had 
and his hand stayed good at the 
board.
Concept and Analysis
Cold four-betting is a very risky maneuver, as you're usually hazarding a vital chunk of chips against opponents who've shown considerable strength with a raise and a reraise.
That said, I BELIEVE this was a great spot for it. You always desire a couple of conditions to apply.
For one thing, the opener should be able to opening light. I hadn't seen Sundling show down a ton of hands, but given how frequently he have been opening in recent hands, I needed to believe a minimum of a few of those were not up to premium holdings.
Secondly — and more importantly — is the reraiser. Many players are heavily weighted towards strong hands after they three-bet, so that you want to attack a player able to three-betting a bit of lighter. As an attentive, solid player, I figured Sztamburski was as aware as I USED TO BE of Sundling's recent aggression, so he likely saw a possibility to resteal.
My position meant there have been only two players left behind me (the blinds), leaving me less exposed to someone waking up with a monster who had yet to behave. Also, stacks were deep enough that no-one was committed to the pot yet, meaning I had fold equity.
Finally, there has been no value in a flat-call on account of stack depth and the potential of Sundling shoving, so I AM NOT wasting the equity of an excellent hand by turning it right into a bluff.
But even though my four-bet were profitable, was it correct for me to name Sundling's shove? On the time, I did some quick math and figured because it was 8,400 more to name and the pot was over 20,000, I USED TO BE probably priced in. Was I right?
Let's review that math. Dependent on the precise selection of players seated, there has been about 22,500 within the pot. Divide that by 8,400, and we all know we were getting about 2.7-to-1 on a call.
What hands would Sundling be shoving here? He probably figures he's getting called in a minimum of one spot, but I FEEL this player would fold 
here, expecting to be dominated.
If we give him a spread of, say, 
and higher pairs plus 
and plug that into trusty PokerStove, we discover that 
has 31.5 percent equity against that range. So I USED TO BE probably a couple of 2.2-to-1 underdog, meaning a decision was mathematically correct here.
Looks just like the call was justified, so the true question is whether or not my assessment of the four-betting spot was good or not. What do you think?
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