When the members of the 2016 November Nine take a seat to play to a champion Oct. 30 within the Penn & Teller Theater on the Rio All-Suite Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, no person knows what is going to actually happen, however the folks here at PokerNews and Advanced Poker Training can have slightly insight.
In advance of the 2016 World Series of Poker Main Event final table, we got together and ran 100 final table simulations, printing the results, key hands and strategic analysis of the way all of it played in a 3 part series dubbed Simulating the November Nine.
Using the tips we had gathered to position together bios of every of the November Nine, we devised a basic playing style for every of the players. Of course, we never imagined shall we predict exactly who would win the primary Event this year with any real accuracy and even devise playing styles that fit the November Niners perfectly. There are just too many variables at play.
However, thinking lets build playing styles that were reasonably on the subject of reality and that this will likely be a singular strategy to create some interesting Main-Event-focused content, all while giving us a more of a systematic solution to predict who might pop out on top, we went ahead.
Advanced Poker Training was developed by a couple of Floridian academics, software developers and brothers named Steve Blay and Allen Blay. The organization offers poker training in just a little a special way. In place of the standard video tutorial or one-on-one within the lab formats, APT sends its players off to play in simulated games against artificial intelligence bots. In fact, they've designed thousands of various AI bots with different playing styles, weak and strong, for players to check themselves against, so it was easy to examine they might take the fundamental November Niner playing styles we'd get a hold of and design bots around them.
Steve Blay, the software developer behind the APT product, said its bots are designed in response to a collection of criteria that come with tendencies, frequencies and adjustments real players make, and are designed to play like real humans with real flaws.
Blay made an effort to map the ideas PokerNews provided about each player, their personality, playing style and experience to the 42 configurable personality traits available for APT's AI bots and altered them in accordance with an assessment of the way comfortable each player could be within the spotlight, creating bots that played similarly to every of the November Nine.
Then he made two predictions, including what number of wins each could be expected to gather in response to stack size as a percentage of the whole chips in play, and the common money won, using the Independent Chip Model (ICM).
The 100 sims provided the next results:
2016 November Nine Simulation Results (100 Sessions):
| Cliff Josephy | 17 | 22 | $381,472,246 | $3,814,722 | $4,089,787 | -7% |
| Michael Ruane | 9 | 9 | $259,000,392 | $2,590,004 | $2,729,587 | -5% |
| Gordon Vayo | 15 | 15 | $355,544,422 | $3,555,444 | $3,375,798 | 5% |
| Kenny Hallaert | 13 | 13 | $326,954,083 | $3,269,541 | $3,172,393 | 3% |
| Jerry Wong | 1 | 3 | $158,120,494 | $1,581,205 | $1,677,554 | -6% |
| Griffin Benger | 6 | 8 | $219,990,335 | $2,199,903 | $2,498,299 | -12% |
| Vojtech Ruzicka | 8 | 8 | $244,699,268 | $2,446,993 | $2,547,844 | -4% |
| Fernando Pons | 5 | 2 | $169,517,183 | $1,695,172 | $1,423,125 | 19% |
| Qui Nguyen | 26 | 20 | $427,993,577 | $4,279,936 | $3,918,534 | 9% |
The numbers came relatively just about the anticipated values, with the Qui Nguyen bot providing essentially the most interesting outlier, winning 26 out of 100 times - probably the most of any player. Chip leader and clear favorite, the Cliff Josephy bot, underperformed, winning only 17 of the 100 simulations. However, his average money won was down only seven percent overall, which suggested he finished within the top half the payouts in some of the sims.
The third statistical outlier was the truth the bot designed to play like 888poker qualifier Fernando Pons managed to win five times, even though it was predicted to simply win twice. It also won 19 percent more prize money than expected, leading the group.
The performance of the bot designed to play like professional gambler Qui Nguyen was clearly probably the most surprising. It was designed to gamble and did so successfully. However, the bot still displayed some savvy. In a single of the important thing hands (revealed within the second a part of the series) that led the bot to victory, that savvy was clearly on display.
Click To Replay
The hand in question began with the Jerry Wong bot picking up the type of hand it couldn't really fold to a three-bet from Nguyen, essentially the most aggressive player at the table on the time.
As you'll find from the replay, however, the Nguyen bot got paid off this time as it bogged down a bit of and checked the flop with a monster.
Of course, the Nguyen bot got extremely lucky its opponent turned top pair, but that check at the flop can have helped get more cash out of the Wong bot despite a blank at the turn, considering it was probably a great spot for the Wong bot to show 
right into a bluff.
It clearly ran good in numerous of the sims, however the Nguyen bot obviously played good to boot. the method it employed with great success inside the sims, APT actually offered Nguyen a sponsorship for the general table that includes a patch and a few advice in accordance with what APT learned.
For the third a part of the series, PokerNews asked APT's Director of Operations Steve Blay to offer all the player's keys to winning and pitfalls to bypass in keeping with what he saw within the simulations.
Most predominately, Blay suggested Cliff Josephy should avoid big confrontations with the player holding stacks that may hurt him and put pressure at the rest.
He also suggested Nguyen should make the most of timid opponents and use his reputation as a gambler to make other players fear confrontations with him.
The full strategic analysis for all of the players comes in Part 3 of the series. All the key hand replays are available Part 2 of the series and the whole results and more at the entire process are available partially 1.
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