Recommendation: Take Oregon (#278)

Oregon just lost offensive coordinator Scott Frost, who took the Central Florida coaching job.  But the transition to new coordinator Matt Lubick should be relatively smooth. 

Frost was expected to get a head coaching gig; Lubick was the heir apparent, and he, too, has already attracted attention as a rising young assistant.  Some pre-bowl assistant coaching changes are very meaningful, but this isn’t one of those situations.

The Ducks averaged 42 points per game when QB Vernon Adams was healthy; a completely different looking offense than when Adams was hurt and head coach Mike Helfrich was forced to rely on ineffective backup Jeff Lockie.  Oregon’s offense came on like a freight train down the stretch, hanging 52, 48, 38 (on Stanford’s elite D), 44 and 61 points in their last five games.  And the Ducks senior laden offensive line is poised to blow holes open for their backs against TCU’s injury depleted defensive line.

The bigger question for the Ducks comes on the defensive side of the football.  They finished the regular season with the fifth worst scoring defense and total defense among the Power-5 conference teams.  They allowed six yards per play against FBS foes, unable to consistently stop the run or the pass.  Lowly Oregon State hung 42 on them in their regular season finale.

But Ducks defensive coordinator Don Pellum put together an impressive gameplan against Florida State with a month to prepare for their BCS Bowl last year.  This is a game where Oregon should be able to run the football, and Mark Helfrich has gone 25-2 SU as Oregon’s head coach when his team runs for 200 or more yards. Meanwhile, TCU closed out the season with the #80 ranked rushing defense; #66 in yards per carry allowed.

TCU took money off the ‘pick ‘em’ opener after  star senior dual threat QB Trevone Boykin returned to practice after missing time with an ankle injury.  Boykin was a top Heisman contender for much of the season, finishing the campaign ranked second in the nation with more than 380 yards per game of total offense.  

Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson: “He gets a chance to showcase one last game. I always tell them bowl games are résumé games for seniors. It’s a chance for people to watch them against, usually, a good competition player they are going to play against.”

But Boykin isn’t going to have his top weapon available here, with star WR Josh Doctson downgraded to ‘out’.  Doctson is absolutely worth something to the pointspread, a playmaker with 14 TD’s and a 17.0 yard per catch average on his 78 receptions this year. 

No other receiver on the team caught more than 40 balls or had more than 600 receiving yards on the campaign.  In the three games that Doctson couldn’t play at the end of the regular season, an offense that had averaged more than 45 points per game was held to 23, 29 and 21 points ( 21 in regulation, they scored a TD in overtime to beat Baylor).

The late season injuries to Doctson and Boykin doomed TCU’s chances for an undefeated season and a trip to the College Football Playoffs.  But those two injuries were just the tip of the iceberg for the Horned Frogs this year.  They lost seven starters to season ending injuries and had more than 20 key contributors missed time due to injury. 

As a result, despite coach Patterson’s desired reliance on seniors, TCU had to use 30 freshmen on the field this year, second most of any BCS program in the country! Given their defense weakness against the run and the loss of their top passcatcher, there’s only one way I can look here.  Take Oregon.

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