Stephen Curry is reshaping the way basketball is being played at the pro level. The reigning NBA MVP is a nightly must-see, and has the NBA champion Golden State Warriors playing at a record-setting pace basketball bettors haven’t seen since the 1995-96 Michael Jordan-led Chicago Bulls.
Curry is averaging nearly 31 points per game for 54-5 (33-24-2 ATS) Warriors while shooting 51.5 percent from the field, including a career-high 46.8 percent from beyond – and we mean well beyond - the 3-point arc. And despite all those impressive feats, in the eyes of oddsmakers, Curry is still not the most valuable player to the NBA pointspreads.
That title still belongs to Cleveland Cavaliers small forward LeBron James, who sportsbooks say is worth as much as six points to the Cavs’ opening odds. And that’s before the betting public gets ahold of the number and likely runs it up even higher.
“Stephen Curry has certainly gotten closer, but James remains on top of the mountain regarding a player’s absence affecting odds,” John Lester, lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, tells Covers. “James remains the most valuable player because of his diverse skill set. Curry doesn’t bring the rebounding and defensive assets to the table that LeBron does. LeBron can still take over a game in any manner. Heck, he beat the Warriors twice in the Finals last year essentially by himself.”
On top of their contrasting skill sets, oddsmakers also point out the talent around Curry and James. Golden State has built a championship roster with quality role players like Draymond Green and Klay Thomson as well as a deep bench of contributors that can pick up the slack when Curry is out, much like he was against the Atlanta Hawks Tuesday.
With Curry listed as questionable due to an ankle injury, Golden State was as high as a 10-point favorite hosting the Hawks. But once news spread that Curry would be missing Tuesday’s action, the spread shrunk to as low as Warriors -5. Golden State went on to win 109-105 by failed to cover the spread, making them 19-44 SU, 32-30-1 ATS, 30-32-1 Over/Under all-time without Curry in the lineup – including 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS and 3-2 O/U over the past two seasons.
On the other hand, Cleveland has superstars in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love but not much behind those players in terms of consistent contributors. The Cavaliers severely miss James on both ends of the floor, and have a tough time generating points when opponents aren’t throwing multiple defenders to slow down LeBron, leaving others open on offense.
James’ most recent absence came versus the Washington Wizards Sunday, with the four-time MVP taking a night off to rest. Cleveland shot just 40 percent from the field and allowed Washington to hit better than 49 percent of its looks, losing 113-99 as 2.5-point road chalk. The Cavaliers were as high as 6-point favorites and bet down as low as -1.5 for that game. That finish made Cleveland a miserable 2-12 SU and ATS, with a 2-12 Over/Under count without James in the lineup since his return to the franchise in 2014-15.
“LeBron is worth more to the spread than Curry simply because the Cavs have zero depth and rely so much on LeBron’s playmaking,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook.ag tells Covers. “The Warriors play much better team defense and have so much depth on their team with multiple players that can help on offense. LeBron is the only player on the Cavs that plays any defense, take him away and that team is a sieve.”
Those two elite talents have really separated themselves from the pack in terms of individual impact on the nightly odds, with James’ value estimated to be around six points and Curry bouncing between 3.5 and four points – before the betting market places a dime. Once NBA bettors get wind of the news that either Curry or James is out, line movement will go as far as the market will let it before bettors start buying back on the other side.
However, the more Curry improves and continues to dominate the Western Conference – a much tougher nightly challenge than LeBron in the Eastern Conference – the more sportsbooks are treating these two superstars as pointspread equals.
“I think Curry and LeBron are on par with each other as far as value to the line. They’re each worth about five points to the line depending on the opponent,” Greg Sindell, of SportsInteraction.com, tells Covers. “While Curry is definitely ‘The Man’ in the NBA right now, LeBron is still worth as much to the line because of the drop off in his team if he is out. (Kevin) Durant used to be in this conversation but the emergence of (Russell) Westbrook has lessened the impact on the team if KD is out.”
In the race for actual league MVP, the Warriors’ sharpshooter has the edge over “King James” with oddsmakers setting “Chef Curry” as an overwhelming -8,000 front runner to win his second straight MVP honor. James is priced at +3,000 with four others – not including Curry – ahead of him on the board. Green (30/1), Westbrook (28/1), Durant (20/1) and Kawhi Leonard (18/1) are behind Curry on the MVP futures board.
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