Friday, October 31, 2014

Does Your Opponent Have a Flush? Here’s The best way to Tell



Does he have it?

One of the frequent puzzles it's a must to solve when playing no-limit hold’em is the location through which you've got either top pair at the flop or an overpair to the board, but by the tip of the hand it's important to determine whether your opponent made a flush.

If I MAY do that correctly each time, I’d be rich. I’m not rich, so that you will also be sure I don’t have a 100% accurate formula worked out. But there’s a tell serious about this case that arises frequently enough that it’s worth knowing about.

A couple of years ago, I USED TO BE playing my usual game, $1/$2 no-limit hold’em, at what was then the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas, now renamed The Quad. Early within the session, I USED TO BE within the small blind with  9-  8- -offsuit, and after one player made a small raise and another called, I DETERMINED to name to boot. (IF YOU WISH TO question the wisdom of that call, I won’t fault you, though it worked out well this time.) The flop was a lovely  K-  8-  8- , with two hearts.

I decided to fast-play this situation, and made a lead-out bet. The unique raiser folded, then the opposite player called. His possibly hands were a  K- , an  8- , or a flush draw.

The turn was a 3rd heart. Before I acted, I REALIZED that he rechecked his hole cards. A-ha! That strongly suggested that he didn't have a flush draw that had just come in.

Why do I say this? Here’s why.

Most recreational players don’t memorize the suits in their cards. They keep a visible memory that they've either two red cards, two black cards, or one red and one black, but they don’t know the suits with any confidence.

If he’d had two red cards, he would have rechecked them at the flop to peer if he had a flush draw before deciding whether to name. But he didn’t. He only rechecked them at the turn, suggesting that he had one red card and one black card. He was checking to look if he now had a backdoor flush draw that he might make at the river.

After he called my flop bet, I USED TO BE planning to test if a heart came on fourth street, thinking that the draw was his perhaps hand, but if I saw him check his cards again when the third heart came, that modified my mind. I bet and he folded.

I think he probably had a black king and a smaller red card. Most likely, he discovered that his red card was a diamond, or it was a heart but too small for him to trust that his flush will be the winner although the river brought a fourth heart.

The key to this tell is knowing that players need to know in the event that they have a flush draw — it makes a large difference in deciding whether to name. Having done so, they now not wish to recheck their hole cards after they actually make the flush. For the numerous players who exhibit this actual tell, then, the trick is to grasp that the “suit check” is meant to figure out whether or not they have a flush draw, not whether or not they have a made flush.

If a player’s hole cards are the similar color (red or black), he’ll are inclined to recheck them when the board has two cards of the similar suit in that color. If his cards are of various colors, however, he’ll usually check them only when the board has three of a suit in that color at the flop or turn.

This tell is usual enough to be highly profitable and value watching for, but isn't any more universal than the rest in poker. Some caveats:

  • Some players always memorize the suits in their down cards, and not want to recheck them later within the hand. (I LIKE TO RECOMMEND this tradition to you.)
  • Some players do memorize their suits, but if their flush is available in they would like to reassure themselves that they didn’t misread their cards, so will recheck before committing much more money to the pot.
  • Some players are conscious about the tell I’ve described and are smart enough to make use of it deceptively against you. Such players will check their hole cards when a 3rd suited card hits the board in an effort to make you're thinking that they simply now have a draw, when their flush is definitely made. Or they're going to check their cards when the flop has two of a suit with a purpose to make you think that they've the flush draw, in order to bluff when the third suited card comes. But this species of player is comparatively rare in low-stakes games.

Remember that a player rechecking his cards is typically on the lookout for a flush draw in preference to a completed flush, and you’ll be well in your solution to knowing the right way to play your big pair against him.

Robert Woolley lives in Asheville, NC. He spent several years in Las Vegas and chronicled his life in poker at the “Poker Grump” blog.

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