Thursday, July 28, 2016

Poker Strategy With Ed Miller: Watch out for Unforced BetsNO Deposit bonus $43

Ed MillerUnforced bets are trouble.

What’s an unforced bet you ask? I’ll do my best to define it, as it’s a bit nuanced, but when you understand the idea, it becomes very powerful.

First, I’ll start with of venture that may be always unforced: a river bet by the player closing the action. Say you’re playing $2-$5 with $500 stacks. You open to $20, and two players call behind you. There’s $67 within the pot.

The flop comes. You bet $40, and only the player at the button calls.

The turn comes. You check, the player at the button bets $70, and also you call. There’s $287 within the pot and $370 behind.

The river comes. You check, and your opponent bets $110.

That is an unforced bet. Your opponent could easily have checked to get to showdown. This is what makes of venture unforced—your opponent can have chosen to not bet without risking any of the things players are likely to fear (e.g., giving free cards, getting bluffed, losing the initiative, and so forth.) If he checked it down, the hand would visit showdown.

In general, in small-stakes live games, unforced bets are trouble. Why? Because an unforced bet—by definition—is not made for a defensive or procedural reason (a flop continuation-bet after a preflop raise can be procedural for plenty of players). It’s therefore made for one in every of only two reasons: As a bluff or for the reason that player is betting for value.

And since small-stakes players are likely to bluff too infrequently and have a tendency to be too cautious with their value bets, unforced bets are likely to skew toward very strong ranges of hands.
These are the bets you need to refuse to repay. When you see the sort of bets, typically you must lay it down and move directly to the following hand.

What makes this idea tricky is that many bets people make are “forced” bets. They’re not forced within the sense that somebody is sitting behind them demanding that they bet in any other case. But they’re forced in that the player appears like betting is wanted to either keep their standing within the hand or to circumvent a foul outcome that might arise from failing to bet.

For example, as I DISCUSSED above, a flop continuation bet after a preflop raise is a “forced” bet. It’s not actually mandatory, of course, but it’s such a bet many players make with good and bad hands for the procedural purpose of putting in place future play within the hand.

Another “forced” bet is any bet someone makes at the turn after the flop checks through. There are any choice of defensive or procedural reasons for players to bet on this situation.

One obvious difference between these examples of forced bets that I’ve made and the unforced example is that the unforced bet above is significantly larger in size than those forced bets. Within the unforced example, the player bet $110 at the river. On a flop continuation bet or on a turn bet after the flop checks through, the everyday bet size could be within the $20 to $50 range. Much smaller.

This is a vital difference, and one I’ve intentionally highlighted prior to now. Be more worried about big bets in small-stakes games than small bets. And that is generally true.

But sometimes forced bets will also be fairly large, and these bets shouldn't be as scary as large, unforced bets. Some of the common scenarios for this occurs when a player moves all-in either at the flop or at the turn. Here’s an example.

It’s a $2-$5 game. Most players are twiddling with $500 stacks, however the main opponent on this hand has about $350.

The player with $350 opens the pot for $25. One player calls, and also you call at the button with A-Q. The blinds fold.

The flop comes Q-10-8 with two hearts. Your opponent bets $35 into the $82 pot. You raise to $100. Your opponent moves all-in for $225 more.

This is a huge bet, evidently. But it’s also a forced bet. To grasp why, consider how your opponent could be feeling holding a hand like K-Q or Q-J or a large draw.

For most players, on a board like this, these hands could be too strong to think about folding to the flop raise. So the verdict is between a flop call, or raise.

A call, however, puts the out of position caller in just a little a difficult position. There’s essentially one bet remaining and two streets of action. To name and to test the turn gives the player in position absolutely the approach to bet or not. And if that street checks through, checking again gives the in position player a second option—an method to make a menacing, unforced bet.

So a number of the out of position players would recognize the negatives of allowing this action and instead will choose the somewhat defensive play of simply shoving all in immediately. Most players would describe this thinking as being “pot-committed.”

As you spot from the example, however, this flop bet all-in—while large in size—is also a forced play with a good portion of the preflop raiser’s hand range. It is, therefore, not an especially strong bet, and you’d be mad to fold your A-Q to the all-in.

The same concept can hold at the turn.

Let’s say you open the pot for $25 with ASpade Suit JSpade Suit, and two players call behind you. There’s $82 within the pot, and again, some of the players has about $350 remaining.

The flop comes J-9-3 with two hearts. You bet $45, and the button calls. There’s $172 within the pot and $280 behind.

The turn is the 7Club Suit. You bet $80, and your opponent shoves all in for the remainder $92.

Again, this can be a forced bet. Your opponent can have a hand like 10-8 or a flopped set, but he can also hold hands like K-J, a flush draw and a pair, or perhaps a hand like J-10, that is top pair with a gutshot-straight draw.

The reason the bet is forced is because your opponent has a hand he feels committed to with only $92 remaining. But he’s concerned that for those who have, for instance, a flush or straight draw, that by simply calling your bet, he's going to be supplying you with a card too cheaply.
So, because he feels committed to calling $92 at the river in the event you bet, he simply shoves all-in at the turn.

Again, this isn't a big gamble you need to fold A-J to.

Now contrast this case to 1 that may be identical, except that you're playing $700 stacks. Now your opponent raises your $80 bet to $200 total. This raise can be unforced, since your opponent with a hand like K-J would most certainly like to call. Dependent on the opponent, you'll be able to seriously consider folding your top pair.

The difference between forced and unforced bets may also be subtle at times, but when you master the distinction, you may make much sharper calling and folding decisions when it counts. ♠

Ed’s newest book, The Course: Serious Hold ‘Em Strategy For Smart Players is offered now at his website edmillerpoker.com. You can even find original articles and instructional videos by Ed on the training site redchippoker.com.





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